One of the priorities is the development of science of business economics. The future for the man was, is and remains unknown, and therefore uncertain. And, as is known, subject in uncertainty decision avoid risks not possible. A characteristic feature of the business is the need for its implementation in the conditions of uncertainty. The uncertainty does not allow advance accurately and reliably determine both the future state of internal and external business environment on different time horizon, and the result of the adoption of this or that enterprise solutions. Proposed in this paper is based on the interpretation of the uncertainty inherent fact of postulating the existence of uncertainty in the world around us and inseparable connection with the uncertainty of the expected result – an event or phenomenon. At the same time, the higher the degree of ‟blurring” the expected results or effects, the greater the uncertainty. Certainty seems to state the authors of a degenerate case of uncertainty, when the degree of ‟blurring” the expected result tends to 0. Possible risks inextricably linked to uncertainty and are manifested in the actual results of – an event expected. The greater the uncertainty, the more ‟smeared” and the expected result is less clear. The result is a degeneration of the concept of risk in a very strong uncertainty, when the expected result is blurred so much that is not clear at all. Under the proposed interpretation in the present study may be a measure of the uncertainty of the value of the range of possible values of a particular characteristic or parameter. The wider the range with the same degree of confidence – the higher uncertainty. At this specified range, depending on the nature of the analyzed indicator, can be measured in different units (natural, cost, labor and others.). In cases where the uncertainty is characterized by a range (interval) that may be expected values of an indicator or sign of such uncertainty will be called the interval. From the essence of interval uncertainty it follows that a measure of this type of uncertainty in relation to the business may serve as the value of the confidence interval of the expected values of the analyzed index at a fixed level of confidence. There’s also another situation where the expected result of – an event or phenomenon can be represented by a set of discrete values. The uncertainty corresponding to this situation, we will call ‟discrete uncertainty”. For a discrete value of the uncertainty of uncertainty characterized by a vector of expected values of the analyzed indicators. The larger dimension of this vector and the range of its discrete components, the higher the level of uncertainty. In addition, the level of uncertainty discrete depends on the ratio of expected probability of discrete events. If these probabilities are close to each other, the uncertainty is high. Conversely, if the probability of a discrete event (such as winning the tender) is close to 1, and the likelihood of other discrete event (such as a loss or a cancellation of the tender) are close to zero, the uncertainty is low. The introduction of the concepts of continuous and discrete uncertainty helps to clarify and specify the various situations of uncertainty and opens the possibility of adequate quantifying uncertainty in different situations. It is important to note the need for separation of objectively existing uncertainty on its intermittent or discrete assessment. Assessment of the level of uncertainty is always based on certain hypothetical assumptions, models and projections and are not always due to a lack of completeness and reliability of the information available, as well as lack of perfection of models and algorithms used adequately reflects the objectively existing uncertainty. In this context and as a risk assessment of the actual deviations from the expected results will also be unreliable (even when perfectly risk assessment methods), because he is doubtful the expected result.
There are two approaches to the understanding of the relationship of uncertainty and risk. In the first approach the uncertainty manifested in the ‟fuzziness” of ideas about the expected results or events arising from possible risks. If the risks are great, and the uncertainty is high. Thus, in particular, at high risk of extensive range of expected values of the analyzed indicator business efficiency. For example, if the risks of violating the terms of supply of raw materials are small, and the range of possible delivery time will be quite narrow, as expected small deviations from the planned deadline. This situation corresponds to a low uncertainty. The second approach to understanding the relationship of risk and uncertainty risks are not laid within the expected range of values of the analyzed trait or expected set of discrete events. With this approach, they appear in the actual value of the miss of the analyzed feature in its range of expected values, or in the implementation of discrete events, not belonging to the set of expected events. For example, if the expected event is winning or losing the tender, and the tender was canceled, it was realized the risk of cancellation of the tender, which was not taken into account in the set of possible events. Or, if taking into account the expected risks specific range forecast economic profitability of the business entity, as a result of the implementation of external risks unaccounted actual profitability was below the lower limit of the expected range, it also shows insufficient complete account possible risks when assessing uncertainty. Therefore it seems more appropriate to the first approach, assuming that the level of uncertainty determined by the system and the possible risks more accurately and reliably evaluated the integral impact of the risks, the more accurately defined the level of uncertainty of the analyzed situation. It should be noted that the risk management measures change the level of uncertainty.
And effective risk management measures, increase the level of uncertainty, when the expected events or results to implement these measures have been adverse events or results. Conversely, if the anticipated events or results to implement effective risk management measures have to be sufficiently positive and negative events or results, the uncertainty is reduced and the expected range or a set of possible values of the shifts in the direction of positive expectations.
The work is submitted to the International Scientific Conference «Scientific research of higher school on priority directions of science and technology», Austria (Vienna-Salzburg), 2015, June 22 – July 1, came to the editorial office оn 08.06.2015.
Библиографическая ссылка
Kunin V.A., Zubova L.V., Kunin V.A., Zubova L.V. RELATIONSHIP UNCERTAINTIES AND RISKS BUSINESS // Международный журнал экспериментального образования. – 2015. – № 12-6. – С. 724-725;URL: https://expeducation.ru/ru/article/view?id=9323 (дата обращения: 19.04.2024).